Gold price prediction today: What's the gold rate outlook for May 16, 2025 - should you buy or sell?

TOI Business Desk / TIMESOFINDIA.COM / May 16, 2025, 10:00 IST

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Gold price prediction today: Amidst geopolitical uncertainties, gold prices are displaying bearish technical patterns, signaling potential sell opportunities. According to LKP Securities, MCX Gold June 2025 contract faces strong resistance after a V-shaped recovery.

Gold price prediction today: What's the gold rate outlook for May 16, 2025 - should you buy or sell?

Gold appears vulnerable to further downside in the immediate term. (AI image)

Gold price prediction today: Gold prices have been volatile in the last few days amidst geopolitical uncertainties. Where are they headed and what should investors do - buy, sell or hold gold? What gold rate levels should you watch out for? Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities explains:Gold Market Overview:MCX Gold June 2025 contract is displaying bearish technical patterns after forming a lower high at ₹93400 levels. The precious metal has recently completed a V-shaped recovery from its lows of ₹91600 but appears to be facing strong resistance at current levels. The price action suggests exhaustion in the recovery rally, presenting attractive sell opportunities for intraday traders. Technical AnalysisCurrent price: ₹93239 Key Technical Indicators:

Bollinger Bands: Price has approached the upper band and shows signs of rejection, indicating potential reversal
RSI (14): At 66.32, approaching overbought territory with negative divergence forming
Moving Averages: The recovery has pushed price near the 8-day EMA, but still well below the bearish 21-day EMA (₹96500)
Pivot Points: Previous day's pivot resistance levels acting as strong barriers to upward movement
Price Pattern: Formation of bearish engulfing pattern near the recent high suggests selling pressure

Sell-on-Rise Strategy: Entry Parameters:

Primary Sell Zone: ₹93350-93450
Secondary Sell Zone: ₹93650-93750 (if market extends rally)
Stop Loss: ₹93950 (above recent swing high)
Target 1: ₹92800 (previous support level)
Target 2: ₹92400 (next significant support)
Target 3: ₹91800 (for aggressive traders)

Execution Guidelines:

Look for bearish candlestick patterns (shooting star, bearish engulfing) in the sell zone
Confirm with RSI showing negative divergence or crossing below 65
Volume should ideally be higher on down moves than up moves
Maintain strict stop loss discipline regardless of analysis

Breakdown Strategy: Entry Parameters:

Breakdown Level: Below ₹93100 (crucial support)
Entry Price: ₹93100
Stop Loss: ₹93350
Target 1: ₹92850
Target 2: ₹92750
Target 3: ₹92600 (for aggressive traders)

Execution Guidelines:

Wait for a decisive break below ₹93100 with increased volume
Confirm breakdown with 15-minute candle close below the level
RSI should preferably be below 50 for confirmation
Avoid entry if breakdown occurs with very low volume

Market OutlookGold appears vulnerable to further downside in the immediate term. The recent recovery lacks strength and is likely a corrective rally within a broader downtrend. The metal faces significant overhead resistance at ₹93500-₹94000 levels, while support structures appear to be weakening. The bearish bias is reinforced by:1. Formation of lower highs on daily timeframe2. Failure to reclaim the 21-day EMA3. RSI showing potential negative divergence4. Negative global cues for precious metals Risk Factors

Unexpected dollar weakness
Geopolitical developments
Dovish Federal Reserve commentary
Inflation data surprises

(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market and other asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)

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TOI Business Desk

The TOI Business Desk is a vigilant and dedicated team of journalists committed to delivering the latest and most relevant business news from around the world to readers of The Times of India. The primary focus of the TOI Business Desk is to keep a watchful eye on the global business landscape, covering a wide spectrum of industries, markets, economic trends, in-depth analysis, exclusive reports and breaking stories that impact businesses and economies. With a mission to provide valuable insights and updates, the desk ensures that TOI readers are well-informed about the ever-changing and dynamic world of commerce and can navigate the complexities of the business world.

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